The Path To QB-1

Chew picks four Quarterbacks in the hunt to finish as THE QB-1 in fantasy in 2025.

There can only be one QB-1! But for the sake of this article I will make the case for four QB’s that have what it takes to finish as THE QB-1 in 2025. Since it’s no fun to just pick the usual suspects, I will pick two QB’s in 1-6 range of redraft rankings and two from the 7-12 range. My selections are based on FantasyPros redraft rankings. And in case you missed it check out The Path To RB-1.

*Fantasy scoring settings include 4 points per passing touchdown with no additional bonuses. And QB-1 for this article is based on total points and not points per game unless otherwise noted.

QUARTERBACKS IN THE 1-6 RANGE

Jalen Hurts (ADP: QB-4)

Much to the chagrin of many NFL owners, the tush push is alive and well! This is music to the ears of Jalen Hurts and any fantasy manager looking to draft him. Hurts fell out of the top-3 in 2024 after consecutive seasons (2022-2023) of finishing as the QB-3 and QB-2, respectively. But a “down” year for Hurts means he finished as the QB-8 in 2024 and there is reason for optimism.

Hurts matched his career high in passing yards per attempt despite having his fewest attempts since his first full season as a starter in 2021. The addition of a historic season from Saquon Barkley certainly meant a change for the Eagles’ offense as Barkley had 100+ more touches than the prior RB-1 in Philadelphia, D’Andre Swift. I expect Barkley to remain a staple in the Eagles’ offense; however, if Hurts can maintain his rushing production and at or near his passing efficiency I anticipate things to fall his way in terms of an increase in passing attempts and concurrently passing yardage.

Baker Mayfield (ADP: QB-6)

The former #1 overall pick from the 2018 draft is coming off the best season of his career and enters 2025 with even more weapons to work with. Other than leading the NFL in interceptions, Mayfield was top-5 in pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns in 2024. It will likely take Mayfield leading the NFL in at least one of these categories to become THE QB-1 given his average rushing production despite career-high rushing numbers in 2024.

Mayfield did produce his best season in 2024 despite losing one of his primary pass catchers by Week 7 in Chris Godwin; however, it was beneficial having a stellar season from rookies Bucky Irving and to a lesser extent Jalen McMillan. As Godwin works his way back to full health, the Tampa Bay offense returns all its primary pass catchers and adds Ohio State record-holder Emeka Egbuka into the fold. Mayfield is my prediction for THE QB-1 in 2025.

QUARTERBACKS IN THE 7-12 RANGE

Patrick Mahomes II (ADP: QB-7)

It truly makes me feel old that Patrick Mahomes II is already entering his ninth season and he is coming off a relatively down year at least in terms of fantasy production. But there is an explanation as Mahomes lost his up-and-coming target Rashee Rice after only three games and veteran Hollywood Brown didn’t play until Week 16. Not to mention the relative decline of Travis Kelce and understandable learning curve for rookie Xavier Worthy. Given his fantasy production in this situation, there is reason for optimism in 2025.

Mahomes has finished as THE QB-1 twice in his career, with his most recent one in 2022. And 2025 comparatively boasts a much better group of pass catchers, when healthy, including: Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce. In 2022, Mahomes led the league in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) and unless he eclipses his career high in rushing touchdowns (4) then he will need to perform similarly to become 2025’s QB-1. There was a time when putting Mahomes as the QB-7 in terms of ADP would be considered blasphemy but here is his chance to earn his third career finish as the QB-1 in 2025.

Justin Herbert (ADP: QB-11)

Okay so this one may be a bit out of left field given that Justin Herbert is now on a classic Jim Harbaugh, run-first offense but anything is possible. Herbert finished 2024 with his second-fewest pass attempts and passing touchdowns; however, he did boast a career high in yards per pass attempt. And with a bolstered run game with rookie first round pick Omarion Hampton and veteran Najee Harris, this should open up the passing lanes for Herbert to cook.

Herbert also benefits from familiarity with number one target in Ladd McConkey and ancillary pass catchers Quentin Johnston and Mike Williams. Not to be forgotten is rookie receiver Tre Harris who is poised to push for the X-receiver spot as someone who can consistently win on the outside. Unless Herbert is able to get close to double-digit rushing touchdowns he will need to mirror his 2021 season where he top-3 in pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. I would not be the farm on it but stranger things have happened.

So you made it this long and hopefully you enjoyed it (that’s what she said). If you wouldn’t mind sharing this in your group message with your fellow dynasty degenerates I would greatly appreciate it!